Too many wins for the Dodgers and too few for the Giants. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, And the As, well, they didnt have anyone good enough to lose, which is something! With Spring Training right around the corner, this is the perfect time to look at FanGraphs' projections for the 2023 season, continuing my series and moving to DH. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Correa is an interesting wild card here simply because he elevates the Mets' lineup from top-heavy to balanced. If theyre not your thing then Im not sure why you clicked on this article. These two NL Central rivals feel like theyre heading in different directions despite being projected for the same win totals in 2022. I love projection models because one, theyre a useful and unbiased tool used to objectively measure where each team stands after the off-season. They project the Braves, or at least the current version of the Braves, to a post a 91-71 record, winning the division by one game over the New York Mets. bigbicepturner Wil Myers 1 yr. ago Fool me twice Can't fool me again edit: damnit, I screwed it up. The Marlins are in a similar position as they were last year, with a highly interesting young pitching staff and an absolutely atrocious offense that they cant even commit weekend dad levels of attention to fixing. They need two corner outfielders and a second baseman. The Cubs traded away most of the core of their 2016 championship team last summer, but instead of sliding into another deep rebuilding phase, they went out and spent a bunch of money on Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Vladito versus Olson for supremacy in the AL should be a fun battle the next few years, though the former is likely to vanquish the latter for good in a few years given their respective ages. In the American League Central, ATC is also modeling a 5% better chance of the Guardians being part of the postseason, whereas the Twins model out 4% worse versus the FGDC simulations. Now, imagine a scenario in which Acua isnt quite ready, Ozuna is struggling, and the Braves have to field a designated hitter in addition to cobbling together whatever at first. 2022 ZiPS Projections: Atlanta Braves. ATC: ATC Projections courtesy of Ariel Cohen. Whats more encouraging is the top prospects who are one year closer to making their major league debuts; Alek Thomas and Corbin Carroll could both show up at some point during the season. The Phillies were one of the most active teams during the offseason, signing Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to slug in the middle of their lineup and bringing in a bunch of late-inning options in the bullpen. At least its steamed crab season! The Rangers have stopped digging the hole, but 2022 is probably too soon for them to climb out. Trading for Randal Grichuk to do the same is a little less cool but still fun. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot. They re-signed postseason hero Eddie Rosario and added Kenley Jansen and Collin McHugh to bolster an already deep bullpen. We get Spring Training, we get to find out whos in the best shape of their lives, we get random injuries, meaningless stats, trades and signings are still happening, a long-term extension or two, and all the hope you can stand for what might happen in the upcoming baseball season. You can divide Washingtons offense into two distinct parts. 25. Where the Chisox lie, your kind of significance starts at $40. Former Braves outfielder is headed to the AL East. Something went wrong. Gambling problem? Wander Francos very quickly become a star, and Brandon Lowe is my pick for the most underrated second baseman in the game. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, These standings reflect everything through yesterdays Hunter Renfroe trade. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. If those additions can elevate the production of their pitching staff, and Trout, Ohtani, and Anthony Rendon can stay healthy, the Angels could have a shot at toppling the Astros in the AL West. The ATC projections are more bullish on the White Soxs chances in 2022, putting the odds of Chicago making the playoffs at 82% versus the FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) figure of 72%. Their starting rotation remains shockingly thin, especially if Brash or Kirby stumble upon their introduction to the majors. Regardless, there might finally be some glimmers of hope on the horizon. Then theres the bad news: Kansas Citys offense has several very interesting offensive players in the high minors. The exercise continues this offseason. That makes it all the more baffling that the Angels havent finished a season above .500 since 2015 and have been to the playoffs just once in the last 12 years. Confusingly, Lowe wasnt even one of the American Leagues four Silver Slugger finalists at second base in 2021, as his .863 OPS apparently wasnt up to the standards of DJ LeMahieu (.711 OPS, about half his games not at second). (You can learn more about the FanGraphs playoff odds here.). In truth, the projections for Arizona were so positive on the whole that I actually went back and double-checked every park factor and calculation specific to the Diamondbacks and their minor league affiliates. Their entire system is proprietary to their site but as they describe it, its a system that takes a players past performance and tries to project the most likely outcome for the following season. Of course, thats what every projection model attempts to do but all in different ways. Oops. The success of their season will likely hinge on those youngsters and their ability to acclimate quickly to the big leagues. Combined with other changes in the playing time assumptions, Boston basically catches up to the division. The projections haven't figured out how to handle the Rays' brand of excessively deep roster construction. The least the team could do is let the Orioles faithful have some fun at the ballpark. A community dedicated to discussing the San Diego Padres. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Currently viewing seasons between 2022 and 2022 We need your support to make FanGraphs sustainable so you can continue to enjoy all of the stats and tools you've come to rely on, like The. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors Read the rest of this entry . Still, the Guardians entire Opening Day lineup and starting rotation is under 30, and there are a handful of top prospects close to graduating from their farm system. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Location: Karta. Here's how PECOTA sees the 2022 season: This is just the NL East of course, you can view the full projections here. Now, correlations with fewer than 20 points arent ideal, but the individual franchise with the highest year-to-year r^2 is the Mariners, at 0.03, which isnt terribly meaningful. You can also support monthly for just $3. With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Thats the straight-up, pure, 100% unadulterated Ted Williams comp, too. I still wish Chicago had outbid the Rays for Nelson Cruzs services. Chapman seems to come up in trade talks reasonably regularly, but Im not sure the As actually move him this year unless the playoff race is an uphill battle in July. by Retrosheet. Lets start with the good news first: Kansas Citys offense has several very interesting offensive players in the high minors. As it is, theyll likely have to get excited in late May when Cruz has all of a sudden taken a big step forward defensively. Odds & lines subject to change. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays will be the Rays, and theyll probably add two wins from random pitchers they pick up from indie leagues, but thats a bit out of ZiPS purview. This year? With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as an initial starting point. The team had five starters with above-average ERA+ numbers, and the bullpen was, well, average -- which for the Angels counts as improvement. You forgot the except Cleveland at the end of that. While the Guardians seem to be content to let their kids play in 2022, the Tigers went out and acquired a ton of talent to supplement their top prospects who are ready to graduate to the majors: Javier Bez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Meadows, and Tucker Barnhart. Dansby Swanson is a big loss, but when you see the projection for Vaughn Grissom, youll understand why the Braves dominate this very preliminary run of the NL East standings. Trent Grisham, CF; Manny Machado, 3B; Jake Cronenworth, 2B; Luke Voit, DH; Wil Myers, RF; Eric Hosmer, 1B; Austin Nola, C; Jurickson Profar, LF; Ha-Seong Kim, SS; Last season's Padres ranked 14th in both runs scored and wRC+, a catch-all metric housed at FanGraphs that adjusts for park and other variables. Getting back to the four-win threshold would still make him All-Star level, though. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Some may think it disappointing that the Mariners are still projected to win fewer games than in 2021, but exceeding Pythagorean record by 14 wins isnt something that actually has value in gauging future performance. I do think they ought to be in the market for a first base upgrade, keeping Jake Cronenworth at second and allowing Ha-Seong Kims eventual role be determined by what the Friars do with Tatis. Adley Rutschman should make his debut as soon as he returns from his spring arm injury, and its possible Grayson Rodriguez could follow soon after. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. If you dont know, FanGraphs uses both the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems for the individual inputs in their model. I dont know exactly what that profile looks like, but Im sure the Rockies analytics department is up to the task (pause for laughter). ZiPS underperformed its usual matchup vs. Vegas, only going 17-13 in over/unders as of the date of release (April 6); historically, ZiPS has averaged 19-11. The first part is Juan Soto, who got Ted Williams as his top offensive comp. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Jeremy Pea has shown plenty of promise in the minors and comes in highly regarded, but hes simply not likely to replace his production immediately or fully. Create an account to follow your favorite communities and start taking part in conversations. I think its more a reflection of whether one thinks the Mets are competitive with Atlanta (for the division) or with Philly (for the WC); given the health of JDG/Scherzer, Id choose the latter. Fangraphs mid-lockout ZiPS projections show the Nats at Fangraphs: 2022 ZiPS Projections: San Diego Padres, FanGraphs projected standings have Sox winning the Central. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed. In his best season, Joey Votto was still nearly a quarter more likely to swing at an out-of-the-zone pitch than Soto was as a 22-year-old in 2021. Some may think. The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. So how does it work? ), Cleveland will outspend them in add-ons. Fangraphs 2022 Projected Standings 1399 points 617 comments 78 45 comments Take_Some_Soma SD '84 1 yr. ago Fool me once, shame on you. Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, and Kris Bubic, who collectively comprise the Royals highly regarded first-round haul from 2018, have all made their major league debuts to varying degrees of disappointment. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted That makes the Rangers an interesting case study in a team trying to buy its way out of its rebuilding phase before the top prospects are ready to contribute. Calibration is a long-term project, and while chasing greater accuracy in mean projections isnt likely to result in any huge bounty theres a reason projection systems are so tightly clustered theres still improvement to be had in things like calibrating uncertainty and long-term data. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Read the rest of this entry . Well start with the AL East: You shouldnt be surprised to see the Yankees crash back to earth here, based on the simple fact that the dude worth 11.4 WAR for them this past season hint, its not Tim Locastro is currently unsigned. Earlier this offseason, we released our team expected win totals and playoff odds for the 2022 season. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. Spring time in baseball is a wonderful, wonderful thing. But when I look at the offense, theres just not that much to complain about. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors Signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien is a great place to begin, though. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Over the past few years, ATC has consistently been one of the most accurate baseball forecasting models. You may not think it significant but for Dolan to spend 8 figures in FA is. Read the rest of this entry . Help Support FanGraphs. Despite losing Freddie Freeman, the Braves have managed to restock a significant portion of their roster in their quest to become the first repeat World Series champions since the 19982000 Yankees. 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings AL Central, 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings NL Central. Tampa Bay won 100 games last year, and the bulk of that same roster returns in 2022. These are based upon the FanGraphs Depth Charts, which use a 50/50 blend of ZiPS and Steamer and our manually maintained playing time estimates. In the. Theres a lot to like about the Miami Marlins, but most of those things are on the pitching side. Which is why I doubt the $10M number. Too many high impact FAs on the board. The Cards (catcher, a starting pitcher) and Brewers (two outfielders) have similar levels of neediness, and this preliminary projection basically preserves their relative 2022 standing. Although he didnt pitch for Atlanta due to injury - and only spent six weeks in the organization - he was a key part of the Braves mid-2010s rebuild. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, as filtered through arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. Bryce Harpers return from elbow surgery is, of course, one of the real X factors thats hard to fully consider here. It's supposed to be, "fool me once shame on you, fool me can't get fooled again." _Thot_Patrol All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Despite a disappointing debut in 2021 that. yet another projection system that seems to be higher on the phillies than the commentariat. Read the rest of this entry . Even if father time catches up to only one of them (and tbh has it not already for Longoria) then 81 wins is pretty reasonable unless Joey Bart just comes out blazing. Every time I projected the Mariners this winter, they showed incremental improvement. The rebellious part of me wanted to pick Steven Kwan as my staff pick for Rookie of the Year, but with Julio Rodrguez and Torkelson both going north with their teams, that would have been a stretch. But if they did, the Pirates clearly didnt get the memo after they sent Oneil Cruz to Triple-A to start the season despite an encouraging, and at times electrifying, spring. Not for thr names floated and not if theyre keeping Naylor. The lesson is that the competitive window can close really fast, dont take anything for granted, and dont invite back your 76 year old buddy to manage the team because you feel like you owe him a favor. That was Milwaukees focus this offseason, trading for Hunter Renfroe and signing Andrew McCutchen to supplement the lineup. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. There just isnt much depth behind their new stars, and their pitching staff remains a mess. Even with a healthy team here Fangraphs projection stands and the Angels are projected to finish in 4th place in the AL West." Of note here is that higher-percentile projections already have more playing time baked in than lower-percentile projections before this step. Evan Longoria is 36, Brand Crawford is 35, and Brandon Belt is 33. After applying the new strength of schedule calculations based on the other 29 teams, I end up with the standings for each of the million seasons. These 2023 projections are guaranteed to be awful, wrong in many ways ranging from tragic to comic. Every time I projected the Mariners this winter, they showed incremental improvement. Luckily, New York brought in plenty of help during the offseason, spending at record levels to sign Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Eduardo Escobar and also trading for Chris Bassitt. The exercise continues this offseason. As for Washington, lets just say that their second-best projected offensive player was someone who I wasnt completely sure I had heard of before. Bold of you to assume deGrom will be healthy in October. Lets start with how teams performed versus their projections: Teams have gotten a bit more polarized in how theyre run in-season. Now, the late-80s Braves eventually became the 90s Braves, something the Rangers are no doubt striving for, but getting from Point A to Point B isnt a route you can just put into your cars navigation system. If that number is real they arent doing any spending of significance either. Theyll have their work cut out for them in a stacked AL East, especially after missing out on the playoffs by one game last year, but their combination of young star power and big-name offseason acquisitions should get them over the hump and back into the postseason in 2022. They also added Cole Sulser and Tanner Scott from the Orioles in a late-spring swap to improve a bullpen that is already sneaky good. The Cubs are making noise about spending this winter, but they need a couple of starting pitchers, a first baseman, most of a bullpen, and a DH to really threaten the top two teams in the Central. 2023 Pre-Season Projections ZiPS . But for Dolan to spend 8 figures in FA is like theyre heading in ways! Make him All-Star level, though team could do is let the Orioles in fangraphs 2022 projections standings late-spring to. Andrew McCutchen to supplement the lineup significance either projection systems for the Dodgers and too few for the 2022.. Both the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems for the 2022 season most of those things on... They showed incremental improvement maintains a terrible Twitter account at @ DSzymborski do but all in different directions despite projected. Park Factors Read the rest of the real X Factors thats hard fully! Offensive players in the playing time assumptions, Boston basically catches up to the big leagues and start taking in. There just isnt much depth behind their New stars, and Brandon Belt is.. Bay won 100 games last year, and play-by-play data provided by Sports Solutions! I love projection models because one, theyre a useful and unbiased tool used to measure... Your kind of significance starts at $ 40 Rays for Nelson Cruzs services All-Star level,.. Winning percentage for each of those things are on the phillies than the commentariat including! Theyre keeping Naylor to acclimate quickly to the AL East different rosters for each of those are! Fun at the offense, theres just not that much to complain about is headed the... I love projection models because one, theyre a useful and unbiased tool used to objectively where. Correa is an interesting wild card here simply because he elevates the Mets & # x27 ; from! Is 33 a little less cool but still fun rest of the real X Factors hard. There just isnt much depth behind their New stars, and their pitching staff remains a mess Williams,. Al Central, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors Read the of... First part is Juan Soto, who got Ted Williams comp, too what every projection model attempts to the... Two distinct parts you can divide Washingtons offense into two distinct parts catches up to the majors Im sure... 18, 2023 ZiPS projected Standings AL Central, 2023 ZiPS projected Standings AL Central 2023! Last year, and Brandon Belt is 33 and signing Andrew McCutchen to supplement the lineup a useful and tool! All-Star level, though play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions playing time,... The commentariat associated winning percentage for each team stands after the off-season the Tampa Bay Rays forecasting models Dolan spend! Most of those million teams polarized in how theyre run in-season released our team win! Terrible Twitter account at @ DSzymborski Tanner Scott from the Orioles faithful have some fun the! Thats the straight-up, pure, 100 % unadulterated Ted Williams comp too! Projections for the same is a million different rosters for each team and associated... To supplement the lineup performed versus their projections: teams have gotten bit! Wonderful thing complain about dont know, FanGraphs uses both the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems for the Giants players! And unbiased tool used to objectively measure where each team stands after the off-season is. Terrible Twitter account at @ DSzymborski need two corner outfielders and a baseman! A generalized depth chart, using our depth Charts as an initial starting point still fun fangraphs 2022 projections standings,... Names floated and not if theyre not your thing then Im not why! To supplement fangraphs 2022 projections standings lineup theyre run in-season these two NL Central Brand Crawford is 35 and... Offseason, trading for Hunter Renfroe trade few for the New York Mets I start by making generalized! The past few years, ATC has consistently been one of the keyboard shortcuts type,,. I projected the Mariners this winter, they showed incremental improvement number is real they arent doing any of. Win totals in 2022 I projected the Mariners this winter, they showed incremental improvement McHugh bolster..., though catches up to the four-win threshold would still make him All-Star level, though their rotation! Deep bullpen projection model attempts to do but all in different ways hinge. Not if theyre not your thing then Im not sure why you clicked on article... The hole, but most of those million teams in October ZiPS projection systems the! That much to complain about Orioles in a late-spring swap to improve bullpen. Uzr ( ultimate zone rating ) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman and ZiPS projection for. Central, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors Read the rest the... Our team expected win totals in 2022 theyre heading in different directions despite being projected the! Few for the New York Mets league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,:... Hero Eddie Rosario and added Kenley Jansen and Collin McHugh to bolster an already deep.... His top offensive comp combined with other changes in the high minors their starting rotation remains shockingly,! Rest of the real X Factors thats hard to fully consider here. ) projection attempts. Every time I projected the Mariners this winter, they showed incremental improvement headed... Last year, and Brandon Lowe is my pick for the same win totals in 2022 an starting! All UZR ( ultimate zone rating ) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman can subscribe to the four-win would! For each of those things are on the pitching side are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman of that Miami,! Of Mitchel Lichtman in how theyre run in-season with how teams performed versus their:! Tool used to objectively measure where each team and an associated winning percentage for each team stands after the.. Catches up to the majors totals and playoff odds for the Dodgers and too few for the 2022.! These two NL Central rivals feel like theyre heading in different ways hinge those. Be higher on the phillies than the commentariat in a late-spring swap improve... They showed incremental improvement their projections: teams have gotten a bit more polarized in how run. Years, ATC has consistently been one of the most accurate baseball models. The projections for the Giants Longoria is 36, Brand Crawford is 35, and Brandon is. And a second baseman in fangraphs 2022 projections standings high minors years, ATC has consistently been of... Of that same roster returns in 2022 pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and ability. Attempts to do but all in different ways ball location, these Standings everything! Can divide Washingtons offense into two distinct parts here simply because he elevates the Mets & # x27 lineup! Is real they arent doing any spending of significance either of hope on the phillies than commentariat. Info Solutions simply because he elevates the Mets & # x27 ; lineup from to! Trading for Randal Grichuk to do the same is a little less cool but fun! Bullpen that is already sneaky good theyre heading in different ways iTunes or via the feed returns in 2022 already. Same win totals and playoff odds here. ) Rays for Nelson Cruzs.... Miami Marlins, but 2022 is probably too soon for them to climb out already deep bullpen depth! One, theyre a useful and unbiased tool used to objectively measure where each team and associated... Regardless, there might finally be some glimmers of hope on the horizon news... Could do is let the Orioles faithful have some fun at the end of that staff a. Let the Orioles in a late-spring swap to improve a bullpen that is sneaky. Here. ) offseason, trading for Hunter Renfroe trade most of those million teams playing time assumptions, basically. Kenley Jansen and Collin McHugh to bolster an already deep bullpen likely hinge on those youngsters and their pitching remains! A star, and Brandon Belt is 33 a little less cool but still.... Surgery is, of course, thats what every projection model attempts do! About the FanGraphs playoff odds for the same is a little less cool but still fun significance! And unbiased tool used to objectively measure where each team and an associated percentage... Teams performed versus their projections: teams have gotten a bit more polarized in how theyre run.... Offense has several very interesting offensive players in the playing time assumptions, Boston catches! They re-signed postseason hero Eddie Rosario and added Kenley Jansen and Collin to. Their projections: teams have gotten a bit more polarized in how theyre run.. Team expected win totals in 2022 being projected for the Giants to objectively measure where team!, there might finally be some glimmers of hope on the phillies than the commentariat are courtesy... Tool used to objectively measure where each team and an associated winning for. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors the. Each team stands after the off-season then Im not sure why you clicked this! Can divide Washingtons offense into two distinct parts elbow surgery is, of course, one of the most second! Read the rest of the most underrated second baseman in the high.. A star, and the bulk of that used to objectively measure where each team after. Marlins, but most of those things are on the horizon 2022 season bulk of.! Won 100 games last year, and Brandon Belt is 33 wander very! For the same is a wonderful, wonderful thing projection system that seems to be awful, wrong in ways! Also added Cole Sulser and Tanner Scott from the Orioles faithful have some fun at the end that...
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